How To Put The World Cup Odds In Your Favour This Summer
The World Cup is almost upon us and one way to make it even more exciting is to have a few bets on the action. There are several bets available in the current World Cup odds that should give fans an interest throughout the tournament and they can all be picked using stats from previous tournaments.
Hosts Have Big Advantage
The outright betting is the most popular World Cup betting opportunity and it is no surprise to see the bookies make hosts Brazil the 3/1 favourites ahead of the likes of Argentina, Germany and Spain. They are the only four sides available at single figure odds and although some punters will look for upsets at bigger odds it is worth noting that at six of the last seven World Cups a team that started the tournament at 7/1 or lower have gone on to lift the trophy.
Much has been made about how the English players will handle conditions and England might not be the only team to struggle. No European team has ever gone to South America (or Central or North America) and won the World Cup. That means the likes of Chile, Uruguay and Colombia should all given even more respect than usual but with well fancied teams dominating recent World Cups it really looks between Brazil and Argentina. Almost of third of World Cups have been won the host nation and Brazil looked a force to be reckoned with at the Confederations Cup last year when beating Spain 3-0 in the final so they look the best bet. That 3/1 that is currently available won’t last long.
Central Strikers Should Be Biggest Goal Threats
The top goalscorer odds are more competitive than the outright betting but the big teams still dominate with Lionel Messi and Neymar priced up as favourites. Both players represent teams that look almost certain to reach the semi finals and that is important with ten of the most recent thirteen top scorers either playing the semi finals of the World Cup or playing for the hosts. Players that reach the semi final will be guaranteed one more game after that win or lose and it can often be an advantage playing in the third place playoff as it’s usually one of the highest scoring games at the World Cup.
You can’t write either Messi or Neymar off but their team mates might actually offer better value since both players tend to be deployed as wide forwards for their teams. Instead why not have an interest in the central strikers for both teams as they could end up getting more chances.
So for Argentina, Gonzalo Higuain looks value at 25/1 against Messi. Higuain scored just one less goal in qualifying than Messi and actually had a better goals per game ratio. He also scored 4 goals at the last World Cup (that’s 4 more than Messi got) and that tally left him just one short of the eventual Golden Boot despite playing two less games than those who tied for the award.
For Brazil, it is 25/1 chance Fred who looks better value than Neymar. Punters are finally catching on to his chances as he’s been backed down from 40/1 in recent months but the clues were there a year ago when he outscored Neymar at the Confederations Cup and finished joint top scorer. With Neymar also struggling for form in the last 6 months at Barcelona Fred should be considered at 4/1 to be Brazil’s top scorer at the very least.
Some of the World Cup betting markets might look a bit daunting but by applying statistics to them to create shortlists we can give ourselves the best chance of beating the bookies and having a great World Cup.