What a Third Promotion Place Would Do to the National League Market

Boreham Wood are 1/12 with Sky Bet to win promotion from the National League, and their price has only moved one way this autumn.

Here’s the catch. Rochdale finished last season on 106 points and still had to beat Boreham Wood on penalties at Wembley to go up. Three years earlier, Notts County’s 107 points, a record for a side finishing second, earned them the same reward: a place in the play-offs.

The National League is the only step near the top of the pyramid that sends fewer than three clubs up. That’s what the 3UP campaign wants to change, and a third promotion place would change the betting as much as the table.

Two up, four up

Two clubs have gone up from the National League every season since play-offs were introduced in 2002/03. The champions go up automatically. The sides finishing second to seventh go into the play-offs, with second and third going straight into the semi-finals and fourth to seventh playing one-off quarter-finals.

League Two works the other way round. It sends four clubs up and only two down, the only EFL division with just two relegation places.

The result is a fifth tier where a brilliant season can still come down to a shootout. Notts County finished on 107 points in 2022/23, four behind Wrexham’s 111. Rochdale finished on 106 last season, two behind champions York City. Both went up in the end, and both needed penalties in the final to do it.

Where 3UP stands

The campaign has been running since February 2025, when all 72 clubs across the National League, North and South backed a letter asking the EFL to hold a vote on a third promotion place.

It has gathered support since. In February 2026, dozens of MPs turned up at Westminster to back it. The National League chair, Jack Pearce, said the EFL wanted 3UP folded into wider financial reform, which he warned could take years.

The EFL discussed the idea with its clubs in March but held no formal vote. Any change to promotion and relegation needs a majority of EFL clubs, including a majority in the Championship. That same month, EFL clubs voted to expand their own Championship play-offs to six teams, the format the National League already uses.

As things stand, nothing changes this season. Two go up, and only one of them automatically.

What a third place would change in the betting

Nobody has agreed what a three-up National League would look like, so any prices for it would be guesswork. The direction of travel is easier to see.

Second place would start to matter. At the moment a runner-up’s promotion hopes go through a knockout, so the market treats finishing second as a good platform rather than a finish line. If a third place gave the runner-up an automatic spot, as the campaign’s own argument implies, “to be promoted” and “to finish in the top two” would become much the same bet for the chasing pack, and their prices would shorten accordingly.

The play-off market would change shape, too. If fewer clubs had to rely on a knockout, the betting on who wins it would look very different. Exactly how depends on a format nobody has written yet.

League Two would gain a market at the bottom. A third relegation place would put a club that currently finishes safe into the drop zone. The campaign points out that League Two’s third-bottom club has averaged only just over 46 points a season, roughly a point a game.

And this season’s leaders? At 1/12, there isn’t much room for Boreham Wood’s price to get shorter. The bigger change would be further down the top seven.

The same price from the same owner

It’s also worth knowing who’s behind the prices you’re comparing. On 17 September, Sky Bet and Paddy Power both had Boreham Wood at 8/15 to go up. Both brands are owned by Flutter.

That isn’t unusual. Plenty of betting brands share an operator, and sites such as casinobuddies.co.uk trace those family trees from the official licence registers, which is worth knowing before you compare prices or set your limits.

Not every price is a UK price

Search for National League odds and not every site that turns up is licensed in Britain. A large share of the offshore market holds a Curaçao licence instead. curacaocasinos.co.uk, which reviews Curacao casinos accepting UK players, is blunt about the trade.

The government is paying attention. This summer it consulted on making it a criminal offence to sponsor or advertise with gambling operators that lack a Gambling Commission licence. Online betting duty also rises from 15% to 25% in April 2027, and the industry has warned that higher duty risks pushing more stakes offshore.

Second place, second chance

If 3UP comes in, the 100-point runner-up stops being a hard-luck story and becomes a price. Until then, finishing second in the National League only gets you a seat in the play-offs.

18+ only. Gambling can be addictive. For free, confidential support, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.