Set-Piece Goals Across the Premier League: Which Teams Are Most Efficient?

Set-piece situations like corners, free kicks, and long throws are particularly interesting to analysts. They occur frequently, increase the chance of scoring, and can be statistically modeled.

In the Premier League, they contribute a sizable share of goals, and the teams that convert them into actual goals are usually the ones that score more and win more. In this article, we’ll explore the math behind set-piece goals by comparing recent seasons and ranking teams by how productive they are.

Set-Piece Goal Trends in the Premier League

Over the years, the percentage of set-piece goals grew steadily. In the 2025-26 season so far, 25% of all goals have come from set-piece goals, not counting the penalties. This is part of a growing trend, as it was a record that beat the previous season’s.

In 2023, that number was 19.8%, and in 2024 it was 20.6%. This is also reflected in the odds offered by the best crypto sports betting sites, which show that the odds of scoring a set-piece goal are higher than ever. Experts from CCN have claimed that crypto wagers on such propositions are safer and allow bettors to wager without providing personal data.

The main reason behind the change is the focus on direct play and aerial duels. These naturally lead to more set-piece goals. In this regard, corners remain the most productive, accounting for over half of all goals.

Mathematically, if a Premier League season produces 600 total goals and 25% are from set pieces, that’s 150 goals. Analysts and modellers are using these numbers to calculate the likelihood of scoring. Probability forecasts use these numbers to inform the odds further.

Most Efficient Teams by Set-Piece Goals

To assess efficiency, we look at both raw set-piece goal totals and their context within overall goals scored.

In the 2024–25 Premier League season, Arsenal led the division in set-piece productivity with 20 goals. Everton followed closely with 19 set-piece goals. Manchester City recorded 16 set-piece goals. Luton Town were one of the season’s statistical outliers, scoring 15 set-piece goals, despite scoring very few goals in total. Newcastle United also finished with 15 set-piece goals.

It’s also interesting to note that for Arsenal and Everton, set-piece goals have accounted for a large percentage of their goals overall. On the other hand, Chelsea or Tottenham scored fewer set-piece goals relative to their total goals.

Expected Goals (xG) and Quality of Chances

 Expected goals (xG) from set pieces provide insight into the quality of chances created. Not all set-piece goals are the same in terms of likelihood. For the 2024-25 season:

·         Arsenal had the highest set-piece xG at 17.40. This indicates that they create more opportunities out of these situations.

·         Brentford also featured strongly with 17.30 xG. Their goal total in the league wasn’t impressive, but this stat shows they have a good routine for set pieces.

·         Aston Villa and Bournemouth had notable xG numbers too, and both teams were consistent in using set pieces to create scoring chances.

2025-26 Season Snapshot

We no longer have clear stats for this season, but we know that Man City and Arsenal are leading so far. It’s also noticeable that teams that score more set-piece goals perform better in close games.

Types of Set Piece Goals

Set pieces aren’t homogeneous, and there’s much more of a chance of scoring after a corner than after an indirect restart. Corners account for most goals, if we don’t count the penalty kicks. Between 55 and 60% of all set-piece goals are scored from corners. In 2025–26, around 105 goals originated from corners alone, which works out to roughly one corner goal every two league matches.

Free kicks are far less efficient, accounting for only 5% of goals. Throw-ins and indirect kicks account for even less than that. However, they are also more tactically inventive than free kicks, especially when they are near the penalty area.

Math and Strategy

Strategy and math are combined to predict the efficiency of set-piece scoring. They are quantifiable events that can be analysed using statistical models such as expected goals, Poisson distributions, and regression techniques. Analysts do so, and their work then informs the strategies the teams will deploy.

The context of the set-piece efforts can be reputable, since the location, defenders, and tactics are the same or similar every time. The teams can therefore create routines around these events, and, as with any routine, you get better at it the more you do it.

To Sum Up

Set-piece goals are a significant, measurable part of Premier League play. Data shows they account for about 25% of all goals, and that certain teams stand out in how they use it. The most prominent of these are Arsenal, Manchester City, and Everton.

When additional metrics, such as expected goals, are taken into account, analysts can get a clearer picture of the team’s chances and adjust the strategy to focus on airplay, as is the case with most Premier League teams.