An honest appraisal of England’s World Cup chances

(This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA)

In just under two weeks, England will kick-off their World Cup 2018 campaign with a match against Tunisia (18^th June, Volgograd). With kick-off, the media will once again launch a crusade of over-analysis, over-hype and overreaction. Normally, those who follow non-league football can escape the antics which can blight the upper echelons of the game, but there is no such respite when the World Cup is on.
Indeed, it’s difficult to find some unbiased analysis of England’s chances, certainly within the print media. Many of the tabloids are more concerned with moralising over players’ private lives, whereas the broadsheets have been ‘burned’ too many times before to make any bold predictions on English success.
Half a dozen teams ahead of England
The truth, as ever, probably lies somewhere in the middle. England have brought a decent squad to Russia, but one that should certainly be viewed in the ‘outsiders’. In fact, if you bet on World Cup 2018, you will find that England are seventh-favourites at a price of 16/1 (Bet365) to lift the trophy.
Those odds put England behind Brazil (4/1), Germany (9/2), Spain (6/1), France (13/2), Argentina (9/1) and Belgium (11/1): Can anyone really argue that England should be ahead of any of those nations? Even the most optimistic fan would agree England are behind that group at the moment.

But being at the level of seventh favourites should not necessarily be viewed as a bad thing for England. Portugal were coming in at a price of around 20/1 before Euro 2016. It certainly wasn’t the biggest shock in football when they ran out as winners, although they did have five-time Ballon d’Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo in their line-up.
Draw looks favourable for Southgate
Of course, the first order of business for Southgate is to get England out of Group G; something they failed to do at World Cup 2014. Things have been made a little easier this time, with the draw throwing up Belgium, Panama and Tunisia.

(This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-ND)

Obviously, Belgium look a difficult prospect. They play England on the 28^th June in Kaliningrad. The fact that is the final game may suit both teams. It is quite likely that both sides will have maximum points at that stage, perhaps both will even have qualified. Of course, England shouldn’t take Tunisia or Panama lightly, with the spectre of ‘doing an Iceland’ always haunting them.
Regardless of how England qualify, there is not a huge advantage to be gained from finishing first in the group. Finish first or second, England’s side of the draw will throw up a Last 16 fixture against one of Colombia, Poland, Senegal or Japan (Group H). While that looks like a positive thing for Southgate, we must remember that we can count on one hand the number of knockout phase games England have won this century.
Tougher ties await in the quarters
Beating a ‘Colombia’ or ‘Poland’ should be within the parameters of England’s ambition however, and, ironically, the dampened expectation in the media might help them to achieve a decisive Last 16 win in Russia. Should they qualify, the bookmakers (usually an unbiased source) will have England as favourites against any team from Group H.
Quarter-final opponents? That’s likely to be Germany or Brazil, regardless of what side of the draw England’s group position puts them in. Can they defeat either of the two World Cup favourites? An honest appraisal would say, no. But a quarter-final spot would represent a success for Gareth Southgate’s young side.