National League promotion odds: Who’s leading the race to the EFL?

By David Wright, for FIRST.com

Get the latest National League title odds and betting tips as York City, Forest Green Rovers and Barnet fight it out at the top.

Liverpool are storming their way to the Premier League title, Leeds United are predictably top of the Championship, Birmingham City are spending their way out of League One and Walsall are defying all odds at the League Two summit.

But there’s another title race heating up in the National League.

York, Forest Green, and Barnet are all in a fierce dog fight to secure automatic promotion and reach the Football League.

And we’re here to break down the latest National League title odds.

You can get the best sports betting tips and find the best bookies to bet with at FIRST.com

Barnet – 8/5 for the National League title

After finishing second to 98-point champions Chesterfield last season and falling short in the play-off semis, it was no surprise to see Barnet head into the season as 4/1 favourites.

They wasted no time with 18 new faces in the summer, most notably midfielder Mark Shelton, who’s far too good for this league and gained promotion from it twice before with Salford City and Hartlepool United.

While this month’s sale of top goal scorer Nicke Kabamba – who netted 56 times in 110 appearances for Barnet – will be seen as a huge loss, they have moved swiftly to replace the 31-year-old striker.

And that man is Lee Ndlovu from Boreham Wood.

The powerful forward knows the league well, bagging 21 times over a couple of seasons before Boreham Wood’s relegation last year.

There’s been a clear trend in the National League in recent years of teams bouncing back to win the title after falling just short the season before.

Just look at Stockport County, Wrexham, and Chesterfield – each used past disappointment as motivation to go one better.

I backed Barnet for the title in pre-season and I still think they’ll do it.

They’ll need to start turning draws into wins though, having dropped points six times in their current unbeaten run of 13 games.

York – 5/2 for the National League title

Not many would have put York down as playoff contenders let alone title winners at the beginning of the season.

They only just stayed in the division last year, but are currently second favourites for the all-important top spot.

They’re third behind Barnet and Forest Green right now but can move level with the leaders if they win their game in hand.

The signs were there, though.

After Adam Hinshelwood took over as manager in February, he guided York to four wins in their last seven games to survive by a single point.

And in the summer, Hinshelwood re-signed prolific striker Ollie Pearce from Worthing.

The pair won the Isthmian Premier Division title together in 2022 and came within touching distance of promotion to the National League the two following years.

He’s this season’s top goal scorer with 16 so far.

But of the top-three teams, York have by far the most difficult run-in.

They’ll face three of the top seven in Gateshead, Oldham Athletic and Solihull Moors before travelling to play-off hopefuls Eastleigh on the final day.

It also feels like the Minstermen haven’t quite hit top gear yet, with their last run of three consecutive wins coming back in October.

They’ll put up a good fight, but I think they’ll fall just short this time round.

Forest Green – 2/1 for the National League title

I was amazed to see Forest Green as long as 9/1 for the title back in pre-season.

Rovers enjoyed six years in the Football League – even reaching League One – before returning to non-League this season.

And in Steve Cotterill, they’ve got a manager with vast experience and four promotions on his CV.

They saw 18 players leave in the summer but picked up some shrewd signings, namely Ben Tozer who joined on a free after captaining Wrexham to back-to-back promotions.

This month, they’ve strengthened an inexperienced midfield with an impressive loan move for 26-year-old midfielder Luke McCormick.

The former Chelsea academy product has been a regular in League One in recent years with Shrewsbury Town, AFC Wimbledon and most recently Bristol Rovers.

He could make the difference in the final months.

As could the Green’s away record.

They’ve been the best on the road so far, claiming 24 points from 14 games.

They’ll hope that continues when they travel to York, the best home side, for what could be a tasty title showdown in March.

What they are lacking though is a reliable striker, with Christian Doidge leading the charts with just nine goals.

For me, that’s where I think they’ll struggle to keep up in the title race.

Outside picks for the National League title

Gateshead started surprisingly strong this season with eight wins in their first 12.

They’ve struggled to maintain that form since, hence their massive odds of 40/1 to go on and win the title.

The Tynesiders are fourth and just seven points off top, but will need to end a winless run of three games sharpish to make up the points.

Oldham are currently 12 points adrift but do have a couple of games in hand.

Win those, and they’re right back in the mix.

The Latics are without a win in five but manager Micky Mellon has pedigree in this league and is more than capable of turning things around. They shouldn’t be as long as 22/1.

And finally, Rochdale have been largely underwhelming since their relegation from League Two in 2023.

After finishing 11th last term, they’re now sixth and 15 points off top.

However, the Dale are one of the form teams in the division and do have an ace to play with four games in hand.

You can get them at 25/1 for a value shot.

By David Wright, for FIRST.com